Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x566e…8de4 weather 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%299W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$38
14 days−$67
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -3.0% -12.2% 93% 4% -12.1%
≤30d 271 -2.1% -11.4% 91% 6% -11.9%
≤90d 358 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 19% -13.0%
all 358 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 19% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 19% -13.0%
10% -20.9% 16% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 12% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 6% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses299 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)358 / 359
History coverage37d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 +$24 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $37 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 −$36 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $75 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 82¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 26¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 30¢ $13 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $37 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $9 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 833 history records