Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5674…477d sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$276 (+12%) realized +$326 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$302
other 25% −$62
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 38% +6.3%
≤30d 13 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 38% +6.3%
≤90d 13 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 38% +6.3%
all 13 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 38% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 38% +6.3%
10% -28.6% 38% -3.8%
15% -35.5% 31% -13.1%
20% -41.8% 23% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$59 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized+$326
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions12
Markets (closed)13 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 43¢ 36¢ $200 $167 −$33 (-16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 AG Super Play 60¢ 52¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 1 TOP Esports Armor 58¢ 46¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $11 $11 −$1 (-5%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $275 −$270 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $300 +$202 +67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $134 +$185 +138%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $145 −$7 -5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Honor of Kings: Team Flash vs One Star Esports (BO3) - Arena of Valor Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S Jun 18 $456 +$221 +48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 43¢ $203 22m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 33¢ $122 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 29¢ $51 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $101 6h
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League BUY TOP Esports Armor 58¢ $51 6h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY AG Super Play 60¢ $51 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $501 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 15h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $10 17h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League SELL LGD NBW 100¢ $125 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 59¢ $300 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $319 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $138 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 19h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 19h
Honor of Kings: Team Flash vs One Star Esports (BO3) - Arena of Valor BUY One Star Esports 40¢ $31 20h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 80¢ $101 20h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S SELL TOP Esports Armor 100¢ $677 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $145 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $1 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $102 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $22 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $9 29h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY TOP Esports Armor 67¢ $313 29h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY TOP Esports Armor 67¢ $120 29h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY TOP Esports Armor 67¢ $7 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.76 · official $647.81 (match) · 41 history records