Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
56 0x5674…2ff4 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$16,131 (+22%) realized +$14,776 · open +$1,355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,978per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$883est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,072
7 days−$1,868
14 days+$5,669
30 days+$16,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$16,889
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 50% -17.7%
≤30d 33 +24.1% +12.3% 70% 70% +11.9%
≤90d 36 +19.7% +8.3% 67% 67% +10.4%
all 36 +19.7% +8.3% 67% 67% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 67% +10.4%
10% -2.0% 67% -0.2%
15% -11.5% 67% -9.8%
20% -20.2% 53% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,629) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,449 vs −$1,603 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3,677
Realized+$14,776
Unrealized+$1,355
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$883
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1,978
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 54¢ 86¢ $2,323 $3,677 +$1,355 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $4,422 +$1,928 +44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 26 $4,040 −$4,000 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $3,594 −$3,556 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $2,112 −$2,082 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $2,305 +$1,905 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $1,731 +$1,972 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $2,579 +$1,966 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $3,175 +$1,888 +60%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1,414 +$1,975 +140%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3,300 +$1,963 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2,198 +$1,969 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3,545 +$1,935 +55%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $2,174 −$2,144 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $2,017 −$1,988 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3,125 +$1,939 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $4,291 +$1,959 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $778 +$961 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $785 +$969 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,494 +$1,272 +85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $67 −$66 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $1,225 +$973 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $1,422 −$1,405 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $2,629 +$1,447 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $2,316 +$963 +42%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $1,629 +$969 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $1,980 +$919 +46%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $1,225 −$1,209 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $1,199 −$1,183 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $2,504 +$945 +38%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $673 +$980 +146%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $974 +$1,025 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $1,439 +$970 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $1,172 −$1,155 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $858 +$977 +114%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $455 −$446 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $2,355 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $4,040 21h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $4,422 21h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 64¢ $3,594 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $2,112 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $1,731 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $2,305 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $2,579 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $3,175 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $1,414 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $3,300 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $2,198 10d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $3,545 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $2,134 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $40 10d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $277 10d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $392 10d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $878 10d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $470 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $3,125 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $4,291 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $778 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $785 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 32¢ $38 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ $9 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ $21 16d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $1,009 16d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $462 16d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $6 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,677.42 · official $3,677.42 (match) · 80 history records