Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5676…b103
politics · 220 markets active 2d ago
2.5score
+$41,560 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,556 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,697
Realized+$41,556
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses124 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)214 / 220
Avg bet$1,546
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 6 History 214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,148
14 days+$47,438
30 days+$47,941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 88¢ 89¢ $1,024 $1,038 +$14 (+1%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $457 $449 −$8 (-2%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $83 $86 +$2 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 81¢ 58¢ $81 $58 −$22 (-28%)
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? No 43¢ 66¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+52%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 56¢ $44 $28 −$16 (-36%)
Will the Conservative Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $951 $0 −$951 (-100%)
Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $343 $0 −$343 (-100%)
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? No 26¢ 0¢ $1,216 $0 −$1,216 (-100%)
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Kim Jong-hoon win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will Cho Eung-chun win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? No 50¢ 0¢ $623 $0 −$623 (-100%)
Will the Green Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $203 $0 −$203 (-100%)
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? No 9¢ 0¢ $508 $0 −$508 (-100%)
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Park Maeng-woo win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $945 $0 −$945 (-100%)
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $161 $0 −$161 (-100%)
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election? No 39¢ 0¢ $772 $0 −$772 (-100%)
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 05 $423 −$422 -100%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 05 $1,345 +$457 +34%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 05 $335 +$184 +55%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 05 $1,514 +$2,930 +194%
Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 04 $3,478 +$2,445 +70%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 04 $28 +$214 +764%
Will the People Power Party win 4 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 04 $647 +$4,624 +714%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 04 $9 −$5 -59%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 04 $60 +$62 +103%
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? Jun 04 $309 +$30 +10%
Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races? Jun 04 $288 +$648 +225%
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races? Jun 04 $905 +$426 +47%
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 04 $31 −$27 -87%
Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government Jun 04 $474 −$472 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $5,295 +$5,036 +95%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $18,363 +$27,710 +151%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $720 +$943 +131%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $11,327 +$10,917 +96%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $930 +$646 +69%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $7,974 +$4,519 +57%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $4,602 −$2,904 -63%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $129 −$73 -56%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $2,790 −$1,121 -40%
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 03 $935 −$442 -47%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 03 $2,899 −$949 -33%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $10,248 −$5,345 -52%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 02 $2,774 −$2,338 -84%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 02 $152 +$138 +91%
Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races? Jun 01 $346 −$343 -99%
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? May 29 $218 +$3 +1%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 29 $2,726 −$2,137 -78%
Will Cho Eung-chun win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 29 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Kim Jong-hoon win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 28 $219 −$212 -96%
Will Park Maeng-woo win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 28 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 27 $6 +$40 +658%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec May 27 $717 +$105 +15%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi May 25 $297 −$124 -42%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca May 23 $1,200 −$450 -38%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 21 $73 −$35 -48%
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? May 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? May 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 21 $268 +$87 +32%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 20 $2,064 −$362 -18%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 14 $136 −$113 -83%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 13 $263 +$125 +48%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 13 $5,645 +$3,465 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 54% −$4,592
other 37% +$33,884
world 9% +$11,481
economics 0% +$251
crypto 0% +$462
tech 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $81 2d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $459 5d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 5d
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $25 5d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $84 5d
Yoon out of custody before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $1,029 5d
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $9 6d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 7d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? BUY No 0¢ $6 7d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el SELL Yes 99¢ $122 7d
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $9 7d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 46¢ $8 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 40¢ $42 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $306 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 56¢ $1 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 56¢ $1,964 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 60¢ $589 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 63¢ $892 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 64¢ $136 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 64¢ $55 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 64¢ $67 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 64¢ $3 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 64¢ $3,293 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 64¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.6% +31.7% 75% 75% +69.2%
≤30d 51 +34.8% +22.0% 49% 43% +62.1%
≤90d 81 +15.7% +4.7% 47% 40% +55.9%
all 214 +22.1% +10.5% 58% 46% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.5% 46% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 33% -5.1%
15% -9.7% 23% -14.2%
20% -18.6% 18% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,697.14 · official $1,697.14 (match) · 3500 history records