Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5677…0f1c crypto 324 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+1%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%170W / 153L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$71
14 days−$30
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$212
crypto 2% −$9
world 0% +$1
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 5% -10.0%
≤30d 102 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 27% -8.9%
≤90d 213 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 36% -8.9%
all 323 +3.5% -6.3% 53% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 37% -9.0%
10% -15.3% 32% -17.7%
15% -23.5% 29% -25.6%
20% -31.0% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses170 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions0
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage196d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 323 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $707 +$53 +8%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $928 −$228 -24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh Jun 28 $967 +$31 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 27 $350 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $260 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $1,485 −$74 -5%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $300 +$15 +5%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $2,226 +$39 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $2,915 +$60 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $942 +$50 +5%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama Jun 24 $183 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $956 +$44 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $1,590 +$20 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $438 −$60 -14%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $116 +$1 +1%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $10 +$10 +100%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $156 +$7 +5%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $1,601 +$30 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 20 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $440 +$50 +11%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $10 +$12 +119%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $10 −$5 -44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $104 +$45 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $211 +$22 +10%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $1,020 −$11 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,830 +$61 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,015 +$13 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $27 +$1 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $924 +$26 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,000 +$46 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $353 −$38 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 34¢ $340 43m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 30¢ $300 48m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 42¢ $210 55m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 42¢ $163 55m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 42¢ $47 55m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $407 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 65¢ $611 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 76¢ $3 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 76¢ $16 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 76¢ $16 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 76¢ $3 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 92¢ $9 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 92¢ $66 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 92¢ $15 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 89¢ $890 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh SELL South Africa 99¢ $992 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh SELL South Africa 99¢ $6 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 96¢ $717 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 96¢ $96 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 96¢ $99 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 96¢ $48 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $7 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $127 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $0 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $1 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $8 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $3 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $13 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $15 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 70¢ $21 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1069 history records