trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +172.9% | +147.0% | 67% | 67% | +65.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +172.9% | +147.0% | 67% | 67% | +65.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +34.4% | +21.6% | 50% | 38% | -22.5% |
| all | 19 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 42% | 32% | -24.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.1% | 32% | -24.1% |
| 10% | -27.8% | 21% | -31.3% |
| 15% | -34.8% | 21% | -38.0% |
| 20% | -41.2% | 16% | -44.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 84¢ | 96¢ | $250 | $285 | +$35 (+14%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $310 | $275 | −$35 (-11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $150 | $171 | +$21 (+14%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $122 | $124 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $105 | $104 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $125 | $102 | −$23 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND | Jun 18 | $71 | +$97 | +136% |
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $77 | −$6 | -8% |
| Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? | Jun 16 | $26 | +$41 | +160% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Apr 07 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 07 | $500 | +$37 | +8% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27? | Mar 27 | $125 | −$125 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? | Mar 24 | $125 | +$62 | +49% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 24? | Mar 23 | $125 | −$125 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 20? | Mar 19 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 19? | Mar 19 | $250 | +$172 | +69% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 18 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 18 | $500 | −$3 | -1% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Mar 18 | $260 | +$39 | +15% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 03 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 03 | $1,500 | +$106 | +7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 1? | Feb 23 | $150 | +$17 | +11% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on September 1? | Sep 01 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Aug 10 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? | Aug 10 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |