Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x5679…1505 other 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%80W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$36
14 days+$35
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$3
sports 22% +$30
crypto 1% −$5
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -19.8% -27.5% 43% 43% -0.7%
≤30d 46 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 43% -2.0%
≤90d 53 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 49% -1.3%
all 140 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 57% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 57% -5.7%
10% -24.6% 51% -14.7%
15% -31.9% 43% -23.0%
20% -38.5% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses80 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)140 / 155
History coverage187d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 41¢ 59¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$2 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +135%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 20 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 20 $3 +$2 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Apr 19 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $5 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $5 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 36h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $5 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $2 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.47 · official $89.52 (match) · 244 history records