Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x567e…e2d2 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$619 (+0%) realized −$249 · open +$868
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate85%86W / 15L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,017per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$27,787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$114
14 days+$850
30 days−$756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 47% +$1,656
crypto 23% −$1,961
other 20% +$997
world 5% −$97
politics 3% −$48
tech 2% +$27
sports 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 64 -2.8% -12.1% 88% 2% -10.7%
≤90d 93 -8.6% -17.3% 84% 2% -10.0%
all 101 -7.8% -16.6% 85% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -24.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,197) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$179 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$27,787
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$868
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses86 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions36
Markets (closed)101 / 137
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,017
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $10,018 $10,348 +$330 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $3,830 $3,986 +$156 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $3,320 $3,484 +$165 (+5%)
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,235 $1,302 +$67 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $975 $998 +$22 (+2%)
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $971 $975 +$4 (+0%)
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $735 $787 +$52 (+7%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $643 $646 +$4 (+1%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $634 $643 +$9 (+1%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $624 $624 −$1 (-0%)
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $461 $466 +$5 (+1%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No 95¢ 98¢ $382 $394 +$12 (+3%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $360 $383 +$23 (+6%)
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? No 81¢ 92¢ $327 $368 +$41 (+13%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $322 $331 +$9 (+3%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 84¢ $350 $325 −$25 (-7%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $296 $299 +$3 (+1%)
Will Dreamcash launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $243 $247 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? No 92¢ 83¢ $217 $197 −$20 (-9%)
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? No 86¢ 95¢ $161 $178 +$17 (+10%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $151 $157 +$6 (+4%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $111 $124 +$13 (+11%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 96¢ 98¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 23 $1,485 +$8 +1%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $336 +$1 +0%
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 23 $861 +$24 +3%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 22 $80 −$34 -42%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $1,490 +$10 +1%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 22 $19 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $980 +$15 +2%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $1,086 +$24 +2%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $551 +$26 +5%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $989 +$19 +2%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $383 +$8 +2%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 18 $363 +$4 +1%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 18 $320 +$7 +2%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,122 +$20 +2%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 16 $89 +$2 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $598 +$9 +2%
Will Wataru Endo be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Jun 13 $1,936 +$645 +33%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? Jun 12 $172 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $495 +$4 +1%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $168 +$3 +2%
Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $916 +$50 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $841 +$12 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $151 −$112 -75%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $378 +$3 +1%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $1,118 +$9 +1%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $1,216 +$15 +1%
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Jun 07 $49 +$1 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 03 $726 +$20 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $677 +$13 +2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 02 $64 +$4 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,080 −$1,646 -32%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by May 31? Jun 02 $96 +$1 +2%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by May 31? Jun 02 $194 +$2 +1%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by May 31? Jun 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by May 31? Jun 02 $244 +$2 +1%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 02 $353 +$2 +0%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 01 $1,178 +$42 +4%
Will BNB reach $800 in May? Jun 01 $540 +$4 +1%
Will BNB dip to $600 in May? Jun 01 $599 +$6 +1%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? Jun 01 $681 +$9 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $1,438 −$437 -30%
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,637 +$16 +1%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? May 31 $197 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $636 −$29 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $68 2h
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 2h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 3h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 3h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $281 3h
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 18h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 28h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $485 29h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 81¢ $53 35h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 50¢ $25 35h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 44¢ $21 35h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $476 37h
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $5 37h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $5 37h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 42¢ $19 41h
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $122 41h
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $289 2d
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $199 2d
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $398 2d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 98¢ $16 2d
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 96¢ $10 2d
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,787.40 · official $27,787.29 (match) · 890 history records