Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5687…8c8b other 86 markets active 12h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1
sports 13% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.9% +6.7% 46% 46% -3.3%
≤30d 16 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 38% -10.2%
≤90d 27 -11.2% -19.7% 33% 33% -20.5%
all 78 -6.0% -14.9% 36% 35% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 35% -11.2%
10% -23.1% 35% -19.7%
15% -30.5% 32% -27.5%
20% -37.3% 29% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)78 / 86
History coverage173d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +139%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 04 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $6 +$5 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $6 +$4 +73%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -94%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$2 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -93%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $7 $0 -6%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 06 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $1 +$2 +185%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $2 +$3 +136%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $11 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $4 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 19h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.06 · official $25.06 (match) · 177 history records