Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x568e…40bc other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$17 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$1
sports 8% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 38% -12.2%
≤30d 24 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 38% -12.2%
≤90d 24 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 38% -12.2%
all 24 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 38% -12.2%
10% -30.7% 38% -20.6%
15% -37.4% 33% -28.3%
20% -43.5% 25% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$33 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +29%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $58 −$57 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $59 +$43 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $85 +$33 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$51 +152%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $156 −$84 -54%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $91 −$69 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$92 +139%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$8 +8%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $38 +$65 +172%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$42 +59%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$51 +101%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $25 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $26 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $58 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $82 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $59 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $85 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $13 3d
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $26 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $56 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 45¢ $71 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $100 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.84 · official $15.47 (match) · 43 history records