Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5690…db35 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-7%) realized −$35 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$70
sports 10% +$25
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -16.8%
≤30d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -16.8%
≤90d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -16.8%
all 11 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 55% -16.8%
10% -23.0% 55% -24.8%
15% -30.5% 45% -32.1%
20% -37.3% 18% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$28 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $27 +$55 +198%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$33 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 27¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 30¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.09 · official $47.09 (match) · 22 history records