Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5691…1be1 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+2%) realized +$100 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%57W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$57
14 days+$89
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$128
sports 44% −$18
crypto 5% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -9.6% -18.2% 72% 23% -8.6%
≤30d 77 -9.3% -17.9% 71% 26% -8.2%
≤90d 77 -9.3% -17.9% 71% 26% -8.2%
all 79 -8.6% -17.3% 72% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 27% -8.1%
10% -25.2% 20% -16.9%
15% -32.5% 13% -24.9%
20% -39.1% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses57 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage183d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $467 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $376 +$92 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $300 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 26m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $470 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $467 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $376 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $104 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.25 · official $103.22 · 203 history records