Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5695…60e9 weather 497 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized −$29 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%396W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days+$80
14 days−$111
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +7.0% -3.2% 95% 33% -8.3%
≤30d 334 -2.8% -12.0% 81% 26% -9.3%
≤90d 489 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 29% -9.0%
all 489 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 29% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 12% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 6% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses396 / 93
Open positions8
Markets (closed)489 / 497
History coverage43d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? No 94¢ 100¢ $173 $183 +$10 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? No 86¢ 99¢ $123 $143 +$20 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? No 91¢ 93¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? No 93¢ 99¢ $117 $125 +$8 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? No 93¢ 100¢ $109 $116 +$8 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? No 94¢ 92¢ $94 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? No 66¢ 100¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $114 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $96 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$29 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $229 −$183 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $162 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $168 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $54 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $178 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$13 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $76 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $48 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $61 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $56 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $23 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $29 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $101 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.13 · official $825.51 (match) · 1443 history records