Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5698…ed7d other 10 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$205 (-4%) realized −$497 · open +$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$4,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$500 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,628
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$292
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $500 $1,604 +$1,104 (+221%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $645 +$145 (+29%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $583 +$83 (+17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $438 −$62 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $369 −$131 (-26%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $500 $318 −$182 (-36%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $275 −$225 (-45%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $336 $271 −$65 (-19%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $125 −$375 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $515 −$500 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $346 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $115 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $66 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $190 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $144 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,627.77 · official $4,630.78 (match) · 23 history records