Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5699…4f3e sports 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-3%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$70
other 46% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.9% -19.3% 38% 38% -12.6%
≤30d 32 -10.9% -19.3% 38% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 32 -10.9% -19.3% 38% 38% -12.6%
all 32 -10.9% -19.3% 38% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 38% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 38% -21.0%
15% -34.1% 38% -28.6%
20% -40.6% 28% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$80 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $332 −$328 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$30 +60%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $318 +$248 +78%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$81 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $99 −$16 -16%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $113 −$112 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$83 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $296 +$190 +64%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 −$79 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$143 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $90 −$89 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$38 -37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $114 −$87 -76%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 +$200 +246%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $119 +$379 +318%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 −$35 -72%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $150 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $183 2d
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $73 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 2d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $82 2d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $99 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $65 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $41 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $145 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $63 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $199 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $50 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records