Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5699…9637 sports 1300 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-3%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%637W / 659L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$93
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$259
other 8% +$18
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -24.8% -32.0% 41% 41% -33.1%
≤30d 732 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 37% -25.1%
≤90d 1296 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 45% -17.7%
all 1296 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 45% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 45% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 36% -25.6%
15% -34.2% 28% -32.8%
20% -40.7% 20% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses637 / 659
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1296 / 1300
History coverage57d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1296 Trades
no open positions (187 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +338%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 +$4 +364%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 22¢ $1 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $1 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $1 2d
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 32¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-1 BUY 62¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego BUY 20¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3347 history records