Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x569b…28a7 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-15%) realized −$46 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4
sports 34% −$75
world 2% −$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -41.4% -47.0% 40% 20% -44.4%
≤30d 5 -41.4% -47.0% 40% 20% -44.4%
≤90d 51 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 25% -35.9%
all 51 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 25% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 25% -35.9%
10% -26.0% 22% -42.1%
15% -33.1% 12% -47.7%
20% -39.7% 4% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage72d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 80¢ $145 $129 −$16 (-11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$19 +83%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $64 −$59 -92%
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno Apr 15 $2 $0 +11%
Tallahassee: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Apr 14 $1 $0 +4%
Tallahassee: Stefan Kozlov vs Alex Rybakov Apr 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 $0 +3%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 09 $3 $0 -6%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 09 $3 −$1 -26%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 09 $1 $0 -3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 09 $2 −$1 -52%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $1 $0 +49%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $2 $0 +9%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Apr 09 $1 $0 +6%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 09 $2 −$2 -80%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $1 $0 +10%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $1 $0 +1%
Campinas: Pedro Sakamoto vs Alvaro Guillen Meza Apr 08 $1 $0 +29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 08 $2 +$1 +28%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 $0 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 08 $1 $0 -7%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Fabian Marozsan vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 08 $2 $0 +24%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $2 $0 -4%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 06 $1 −$1 -81%
Wuning: Alexandr Binda vs Kaichi Uchida Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 06 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $1 $0 -48%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers L Apr 06 $1 $0 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 06 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $2 $0 -20%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $3 −$1 -39%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $2 $0 -7%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Apr 06 $1 $0 -7%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $1 $0 -4%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 -25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $1 $0 -33%
Clippers vs. Kings Apr 06 $1 $0 +8%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $1 $0 -4%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $3 +$1 +39%
Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Emiliana Arango Apr 04 $1 $0 +34%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tommy Paul vs Frances Tiafoe Apr 04 $1 $0 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 04 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 24m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 52m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 56m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 14h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $45 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $64 15h
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno SELL Gonzalo Bueno 100¢ $1 61d
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Gonzalo Bueno 83¢ $1 61d
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno SELL Gonzalo Bueno 94¢ $1 61d
Tallahassee: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri SELL Pedro Boscardin Dias 92¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.99 · official $165.99 (match) · 156 history records