Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56a4…30a3 crypto 749 markets active 4h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-5%) realized −$185 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%312W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$25
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$3
crypto 36% −$231
weather 7% −$47
other 1% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 31% -10.5%
≤30d 106 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 39% -12.9%
≤90d 718 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 41% -16.2%
all 747 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 40% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 40% -16.3%
10% -27.0% 40% -24.3%
15% -34.0% 39% -31.6%
20% -40.5% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses312 / 435
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)747 / 749
History coverage145d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 747 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 23.5 Under 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 Under 63¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 +$5 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $4 +$6 +143%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $10 +$10 +105%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $12 +$8 +65%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $922 −$110 -12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $54 +$46 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $13 +$7 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $34 +$22 +65%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $78 +$42 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $41 +$86 +209%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $18 −$1 -6%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $33 −$2 -7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $37 −$1 -4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $37 −$2 -6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $175 −$16 -9%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $326 −$13 -4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $74 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 76¢ $8 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $5 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $5 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 42¢ $4 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $5 7h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 7h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $5 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 94¢ $9 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 38¢ $4 13h
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 50¢ $5 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $8 17h
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 49¢ $2 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 50¢ $5 22h
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 22h
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 63¢ $6 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $5 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 49¢ $2 22h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 22h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 60¢ $12 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 43¢ $58 24h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $10 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 41¢ $40 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 41¢ $40 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 41¢ $2 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 41¢ $20 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 41¢ $40 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.85 · official $14.85 (match) · 2224 history records