Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56a4…e27f crypto 187 markets active 7d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,203 (+1%) realized +$1,202 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%139W / 32L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$35
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,145
world 0% −$9
other 0% +$35
politics 0% −$13
sports 0% +$38
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.3% +22.4% 67% 67% +39.6%
≤30d 18 +16.6% +5.5% 72% 39% -0.9%
≤90d 28 -3.6% -12.8% 64% 32% -2.0%
all 171 -4.8% -13.9% 81% 15% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 15% -8.4%
10% -22.1% 11% -17.2%
15% -29.7% 8% -25.2%
20% -36.6% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.97 per $1 lost it wins $4.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1,202
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses139 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)171 / 187
History coverage234d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 80¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 100¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $81 +$4 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $123 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $5 +$4 +72%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 9? Apr 29 $2 $0 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 23 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 16? Mar 23 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $244 +$3 +1%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $241 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 04 $226 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 27? Feb 28 $215 $0 +0%
Will Monaco advance to the round of 16? Feb 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $205 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 22 $2 $0 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 21? Feb 22 $225 $0 +0%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $74 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $9 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $1 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $78 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $1 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $38 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $40 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $40 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $5 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $5 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 71¢ $2 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.06 · official $30.06 (match) · 680 history records