Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56aa…c754 other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+1%) realized +$78 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$631
7 days+$170
14 days+$127
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1,330
sports 25% +$808
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 39% -5.9%
≤30d 44 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 41% -8.9%
≤90d 44 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 41% -8.9%
all 69 -9.2% -17.9% 43% 42% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -14.8%
10% -25.7% 38% -22.9%
15% -32.9% 36% -30.4%
20% -39.5% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$98 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$1,165
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)69 / 73
History coverage134d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $670 $724 +$54 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $330 $323 −$7 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 70¢ 48¢ $140 $96 −$44 (-31%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 22¢ $41 $22 −$18 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $602 −$300 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $451 +$228 +51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $146 +$60 +41%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$49 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $58 +$42 +72%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$84 +82%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$10 -16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $175 +$343 +197%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $501 +$30 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $132 +$98 +74%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $116 −$88 -76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 −$76 -78%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $221 +$458 +208%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$183 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $343 −$340 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$126 +83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$140 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$13 -53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$54 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$80 +388%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $152 +$132 +87%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 +$59 +118%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $200 −$45 -22%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $200 +$62 +31%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $333 0m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 29m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $141 47m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $34 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $69 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $50 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $424 3h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $51 4h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $3 4h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $756 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $301 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 87¢ $679 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 46¢ $102 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $206 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $146 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 61¢ $349 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $300 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $51 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $51 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $58 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $202 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,165.30 · official $1,172.30 (match) · 169 history records