Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ab…784e world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,101 (+4%) realized +$7,408 · open −$3,307
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,866per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 153d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$1,316
sports 27% +$1,820
world 24% +$6,725
finance 12% −$8,021
politics 9% −$35
crypto 0% −$333
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.6% -4.4% 83% 25% +1.8%
≤30d 21 -22.3% -29.7% 48% 14% -9.8%
≤90d 46 -18.7% -26.4% 43% 13% -3.4%
all 55 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 15% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 15% -4.1%
10% -31.9% 13% -13.3%
15% -38.5% 7% -21.7%
20% -44.5% 7% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$639 vs −$392 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$2,048
Realized+$7,408
Unrealized−$3,307
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,866
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $5,142 $1,837 −$3,306 (-64%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $213 $211 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,508 +$57 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4,289 −$1,000 -23%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,341 −$327 -24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5,371 +$348 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,828 +$117 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2,336 +$760 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6,014 +$1,377 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5,526 +$488 +9%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5,006 +$202 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $291 +$18 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4,994 +$309 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,537 +$2,396 +94%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 29 $1,230 −$266 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 29 $3,866 −$3,635 -94%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 23 $3,025 −$1,345 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $30 −$22 -73%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 23 $3,817 −$1,328 -35%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 23 $278 −$219 -79%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 23 $1,525 −$1,493 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? May 23 $117 −$41 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 18 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $16 −$14 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 18 $49 −$24 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 18 $18 +$25 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 18 $21 −$20 -94%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $3,021 −$214 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,035 −$336 -32%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 12 $5,063 −$447 -9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 11 $435 −$319 -73%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,059 −$145 -7%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 05 $5,251 +$95 +2%
Will Trump post "Free Tina Peters" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Trump post "Triumphal Arc" or "Triumphal Arch" on Truth Social th May 04 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Trump post "Elon" or "Musk" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Trump post "Third rate" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $72 +$4 +6%
Will Trump post "UFO" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week? May 02 $29 −$15 -50%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $6,265 +$484 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $17,038 +$1,435 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 28 $825 −$300 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$12 -60%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $2,621 +$6,542 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 06 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 28 $10 +$12 +112%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jan 28 $1,283 −$538 -42%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $257 −$154 -60%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5,221 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,565 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1,015 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $355 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $823 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $324 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $240 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $156 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $34 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $324 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $240 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $190 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $75 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $38 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $38 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $240 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $402 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $274 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $402 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $277 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $206 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $37 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $41 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $18 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $133 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $286 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $354 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $452 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $1,015 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,047.82 · official $2,047.82 (match) · 708 history records