Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56ac…fcc5
weather · 178 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$148 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$179 · open +$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Net worth$171
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses118 / 53
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)171 / 178
History coverage63d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 7 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 35¢ 100¢ $20 $57 +$37 (+186%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 48¢ 100¢ $20 $42 +$22 (+108%)
Brazil leading at halftime? No 59¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 55¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 22¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 66¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 44¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? No 99¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 34¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? No 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 66¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 38¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 58¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 59¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22? Yes 19¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 22? Yes 70¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $19 +$27 +140%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $19 −$18 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $18 +$24 +134%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $39 −$9 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $27 −$8 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $22 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $149 −$148 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $152 −$84 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $136 +$55 +40%
Will Peter Taylor win the 2026 Watford mayoral election? May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 5? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 5? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 5? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 5? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 5? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on May May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$5 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% −$179
weather 34% −$30
crypto 10% +$42
other 9% +$19
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $2 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $7 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $17 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $20 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 35¢ $20 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $3 5h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 84¢ $7 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $2 6h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 60¢ $4 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 38% -21.8%
≤90d 171 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 15% -17.7%
all 171 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 15% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 15% -17.7%
10% -19.9% 12% -25.6%
15% -27.6% 9% -32.7%
20% -34.7% 6% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.46 · official $168.93 · 554 history records