Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ae…9bad sports 817 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,738 (-14%) realized −$12,768 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%238W / 666L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day68.3pace
Fees−$1,674est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,584
7 days−$3,739
14 days−$2,231
30 days−$3,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,892
other 9% −$2,172
crypto 1% −$316
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -60.0% -63.8% 18% 17% -23.6%
≤30d 543 -33.5% -39.8% 28% 27% -15.0%
≤90d 904 -31.7% -38.2% 26% 26% -24.1%
all 904 -31.7% -38.2% 26% 26% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 26% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 25% -31.4%
15% -49.5% 24% -38.0%
20% -54.5% 22% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$64 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$12,768
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses238 / 666
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1,674
Open positions3
Markets (closed)904 / 817
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day68.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $280 $282 +$2 (+1%)
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Felix Balshaw 45¢ 52¢ $104 $118 +$14 (+14%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 41¢ 52¢ $53 $67 +$14 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $71 −$121 -171%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Supernova - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cilic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Jessica Pegula vs. Yulia Starodubtseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$17 -541%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Deportivo Pereira vs. Once Caldas: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Robe Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-05? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Caty McNally Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 17 $75 −$76 -102%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $5 −$20 -403%
LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 56¢ $57 5m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 41¢ $54 6m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 37¢ $49 7m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 96¢ $199 12m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 96¢ $89 12m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 45¢ $66 51m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 55¢ $81 59m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 55¢ $1 59m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $45 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 60¢ $121 1h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 35¢ $107 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $32 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $3 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $20 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $5 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $2 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $19 20h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 5¢ $11 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 63¢ $102 20h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 98¢ $98 21h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 91¢ $272 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.84 · official $467.89 (match) · 3500 history records