Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56b2…b455 other 297 markets active 6d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%97W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$11
crypto 30% −$24
sports 27% +$13
world 2% −$14
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 50% -12.2%
≤30d 16 -44.5% -49.7% 25% 25% -40.2%
≤90d 88 -13.9% -22.1% 23% 20% -26.7%
all 296 +6.9% -3.3% 33% 31% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 31% -14.2%
10% -12.6% 31% -22.4%
15% -21.0% 29% -29.9%
20% -28.7% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses97 / 199
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 297
History coverage119d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions (173 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will AJ Brown be traded? May 19 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $6 +$7 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $6 +$5 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $10 +$17 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 18 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 18 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Apr 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$8 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$3 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -93%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $3 +$13 +413%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 5¢ $1 5d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 45¢ $3 28d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 29d
Will AJ Brown be traded? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $9 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 530 history records