Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

56 0x56b2…b5c7 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,325 (+93%) realized +$1,323 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip

Net edge+47%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$236per market

Trades / day19.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+58.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+75.6%	+58.8%	100%	100%	+97.7%
≤30d	4	+75.6%	+58.8%	100%	100%	+97.7%
≤90d	4	+75.6%	+58.8%	100%	100%	+97.7%
all	4	+75.6%	+58.8%	100%	100%	+97.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+58.8%	100%	+97.7%
10%	+43.6%	100%	+78.8%
15%	+29.8%	100%	+61.5%
20%	+17.0%	50%	+45.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +118% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +76% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$331 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$302

Realized+$1,323

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$236

Trades / day19.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	73¢	74¢	$200	$201	+$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Germany	86¢	86¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$763	+$1,137	+149%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$152	+$94	+62%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 29	$101	+$42	+41%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 29	$101	+$50	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	86¢	$100	38m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	39m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,900	41m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	SELL Brazil	100¢	$245	41m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$143	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	46¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$151	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$101	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	73¢	$101	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.95 · official $301.95 (match) · 19 history records