Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56b3…3fa2 weather 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,253 (+12%) realized +$9,097 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%160W / 410L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day107.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$486
sports 0% +$55
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -81.6% -83.3% 6% 5% -89.7%
≤30d 567 -49.4% -54.2% 28% 24% -20.3%
≤90d 570 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 24% -20.4%
all 570 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 24% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.5% 24% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -58.8% 19% -28.0%
15% -62.8% 15% -34.9%
20% -66.4% 10% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$71 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized+$9,097
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses160 / 410
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)570 / 312
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$240
Trades / day107.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $173 $222 +$49 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $141 $167 +$26 (+18%)
Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $160 $163 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $57 $111 +$54 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 53¢ 45¢ $82 $70 −$12 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $38 $65 +$27 (+72%)
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026? No 7¢ 93¢ $1 $19 +$17 (+1243%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+10%)
Will Umar Nurmagomedov become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Charles Oliveira become UFC champion in 2026? No 7¢ 76¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+993%)
Will Aljamain Sterling become UFC champion in 2026? No 27¢ 84¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+209%)
Will Magomed Ankalaev become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+167%)
Will Aljamain Sterling become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 92¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 392 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2? Jun 17 $21 −$43 -203%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 19? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 17 $55 −$56 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 22? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on May 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 12? Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 17 $120 −$119 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 18? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 19? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on April 17 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 22 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C or higher on April 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 22? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on March 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15 Jun 17 $0 −$3 -669%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 10? Jun 17 $66 −$67 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 29? Jun 17 $141 −$138 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 10? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 9? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -159%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 +414%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on March 24 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 29 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10 Jun 17 $106 −$72 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 10 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 29? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 58¢ $26 0m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $2 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $90 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 59¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $43 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $33 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $86 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.48 · official $857.96 (match) · 3500 history records