Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56b3…2c42 sports 796 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+0%) realized +$304 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%386W / 408L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$916est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$1,096
14 days+$400
30 days−$1,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$336
other 1% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -8.9% -17.5% 49% 44% -27.1%
≤30d 279 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 42% -14.5%
≤90d 686 -5.4% -14.4% 51% 49% -7.8%
all 794 -7.3% -16.2% 49% 47% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -10.0%
10% -24.2% 43% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 40% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 37% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$82 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses386 / 408
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$916
Open positions2
Markets (closed)794 / 796
History coverage216d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $64 +$52 +83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $85 +$61 +72%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $23 +$21 +90%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $67 +$49 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$1 -5%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $37 +$37 +101%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $32 +$25 +79%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $86 +$51 +60%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $167 −$167 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $172 +$161 +93%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $66 +$44 +67%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $23 +$29 +124%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $42 +$45 +107%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $269 +$199 +74%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 +$39 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 +$52 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $58 +$48 +83%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $722 −$722 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$20 +91%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$36 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $515 −$515 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 +$29 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$83 +83%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 31¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $67 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $64 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $39 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $85 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $23 8h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) SELL Toronto Tempo 46¢ $20 8h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 47¢ $21 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $50 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $47 8h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $37 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $101 17h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $32 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $67 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $66 18h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $34 24h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $27 24h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 62¢ $86 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $29 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $172 40h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $29 41h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $66 42h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $66 47h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $167 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $23 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $17 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $17 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $58 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 48¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.40 · official $90.41 (match) · 2080 history records