trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -15.5% | -23.6% | 0% | 0% | -19.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 33% | 33% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 33% | 33% | -8.9% |
| all | 9 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 33% | 33% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.1% | 33% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 33% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 33% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 22% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $72 | $2 | −$70 (-97%) |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-80%) |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 19¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-95%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $41 | −$3 | -7% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $41 | −$5 | -11% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $10 | −$3 | -28% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 08 | $15 | +$13 | +84% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 07 | $10 | +$7 | +64% |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 07 | $11 | −$7 | -65% |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +45% |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | -27% |