Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56b9…a90d world 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$2
other 12% $0
politics 5% −$1
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 14 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 7% -9.8%
all 30 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage429d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $52 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $77 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days? May 03 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 26 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 25 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 28m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $45 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $45 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 45h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $4 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $4 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records