Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56ba…4d4b crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$99 (+7%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate95%20W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.7% -6.1% 95% 43% -3.5%
≤30d 21 +3.7% -6.1% 95% 43% -3.5%
≤90d 21 +3.7% -6.1% 95% 43% -3.5%
all 21 +3.7% -6.1% 95% 43% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 43% -3.5%
10% -15.1% 0% -12.8%
15% -23.3% 0% -21.2%
20% -30.8% 0% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.26 per $1 lost it wins $9.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses20 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $116 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $115 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $118 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $148 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $116 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $54 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$7 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $130 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $116 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $56 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $43 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $65 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $32 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $33 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $95 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records