Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56bb…188f politics 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$5
other 29% −$3
sports 15% −$2
culture 7% −$1
economics 4% −$2
world 4% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 86 -10.0% -18.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage360d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $77 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 06 $75 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $2 $0 -12%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $161 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $168 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $80 $0 +1%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $1 $0 -33%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 27 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $2 $0 -14%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $85 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $86 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $2 $0 -10%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 02 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $78 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $77 105d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 111d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 117d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 126d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $76 136d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $75 144d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 144d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 145d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 145d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 145d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 146d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 146d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 147d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 148d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 148d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $81 148d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $79 151d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 152d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.04 · official $79.04 (match) · 318 history records