Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c2…a110 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$971 (-21%) realized −$970 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%59W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$783
14 days−$718
30 days−$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$778
sports 28% −$111
other 10% −$4
crypto 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 48% -36.5%
≤30d 56 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 54% -34.6%
≤90d 93 -4.7% -13.7% 59% 54% -29.6%
all 101 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 50% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 50% -29.9%
10% -24.3% 37% -36.6%
15% -31.6% 29% -42.7%
20% -38.3% 16% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$970
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses59 / 42
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage111d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $191 $202 +$11 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? No 90¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 26? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $693 −$312 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $133 +$53 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $19 −$10 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $66 +$34 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $230 −$78 -34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$48 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $401 +$15 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $601 −$428 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $86 −$76 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $21 +$31 +149%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $61 +$13 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $81 +$35 +43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $142 −$139 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $30 −$9 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $40 +$13 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 +$47 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 85¢ $193 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $45 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 75¢ $111 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $100 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 79¢ $69 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $74 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 24¢ $81 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 29¢ $3 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 30¢ $50 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 32¢ $10 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $13 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $21 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $24 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $165 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $73 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $5 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $46 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $113 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $5 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $45 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.49 · official $252.49 (match) · 303 history records