Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56c2…6219
other · 558 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$389 +60%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open +$286
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$365
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$286
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses188 / 515
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions133
Markets (closed)703 / 558
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day246.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 133 History 703 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$17
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $1 $136 +$136 (+13550%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 0¢ 11¢ $0 $55 +$55 (+11150%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $1 $52 +$52 (+5150%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 0¢ 4¢ $1 $43 +$42 (+4190%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $8 +$8 (+750%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+700%)
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+2100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coritiba FBC vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 8PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Jun 12 $0 $0 -193%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$52
crypto 21% +$27
tech 12% +$201
politics 8% −$4
world 4% +$10
finance 3% +$108
sports 2% +$4
economics 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 0¢ $1 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 0¢ $1 3m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 0¢ $1 4m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $1 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 0¢ $2 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 0¢ $1 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 9m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 0¢ $1 10m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 506 -48.0% -53.0% 19% 16% -7.8%
≤30d 703 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 24% +0.4%
≤90d 703 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 24% +0.4%
all 703 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 24% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover246.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 24% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 22% -9.2%
15% -41.6% 22% -18.0%
20% -47.3% 17% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.09 · official $365.19 (match) · 3500 history records