Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56c3…d769
crypto · 131 markets active 2h ago
6.5score
+$86 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$86 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses93 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$93
14 days+$93
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) Gen.G Global Academy 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -15%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $101 −$5 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$101 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 27 $25 +$3 +13%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 19 $20 +$9 +44%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 May 18 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 17 $60 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 15 $120 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 20 $110 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 20 $371 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 20 $390 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 20 $382 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 20 $11 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% +$30
sports 8% +$164
other 6% −$101
finance 1% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 10¢ $11 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 72¢ $96 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 11¢ $12 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 75¢ $101 2h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 16d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 69¢ $20 24d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) BUY Gen.G Global Academy 70¢ $10 24d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 SELL Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 100¢ $16 25d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 64¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +58.8% +43.7% 33% 33% +41.9%
≤30d 8 +11.0% +0.4% 50% 50% +17.5%
≤90d 103 +5.6% -4.5% 73% 58% -6.3%
all 131 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 51% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 51% -8.6%
10% -10.6% 40% -17.3%
15% -19.2% 32% -25.3%
20% -27.1% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 357 history records