Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x56c7…892c sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$47 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$65
other 9% +$8
world 7% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +4.3% -5.7% 52% 52% -9.0%
≤30d 46 +4.3% -5.7% 52% 52% -9.0%
≤90d 46 +4.3% -5.7% 52% 52% -9.0%
all 46 +4.3% -5.7% 52% 52% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 52% -9.0%
10% -14.7% 52% -17.7%
15% -22.9% 46% -25.6%
20% -30.5% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 66¢ $190 $183 −$7 (-4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 56¢ 42¢ $58 $44 −$14 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$99 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $81 +$27 +33%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $70 +$21 +29%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 +$32 +206%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$77 +152%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$18 +88%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$25 -82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 19 $20 −$5 -25%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$15 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$26 +128%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -97%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $15 +$9 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$23 +76%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$4 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +36%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$4 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -58%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 −$77 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 56¢ $59 23m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 28m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 36¢ $23 38m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 45m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $91 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $5 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $70 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $50 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $40 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $30 8h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 32¢ $15 19h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $5 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $51 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 36h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes $0 47h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco $5 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $20 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $30 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 49¢ $15 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 84¢ $46 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.13 · official $227.13 (match) · 95 history records