Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c8…7cc8 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,222 (-29%) realized −$1,506 · open −$1,716
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,016per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$3,978
other 36% −$1,949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -55.4% -59.6% 22% 22% -55.3%
≤30d 9 -55.4% -59.6% 22% 22% -55.3%
≤90d 9 -55.4% -59.6% 22% 22% -55.3%
all 9 -55.4% -59.6% 22% 22% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.6% 22% -55.3%
10% ← realistic here -63.5% 22% -59.6%
15% -67.0% 22% -63.5%
20% -70.3% 22% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,027 vs −$895 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,083
Realized−$1,506
Unrealized−$1,716
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,016
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 46¢ $1,186 $1,081 −$105 (-9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 0¢ $1,613 $1 −$1,612 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $884 −$870 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $688 −$688 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $769 −$769 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,252 −$1,252 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,336 −$1,336 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $966 +$1,119 +116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,091 +$935 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $839 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,252 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,089 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $1,633 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,203 18h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1,336 18h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $966 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $325 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,025 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $32 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $131 29h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 40¢ $688 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $605 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,082.72 · official $1,105.97 · 25 history records