Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x56cb…9550 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$835 (+17%) realized −$289 · open +$1,124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$5,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$267 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5,200
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$1,124
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2,500 $3,627 +$1,127 (+45%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $800 $783 −$16 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $526 $548 +$22 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $250 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $130 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $360 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $254 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $255 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 57¢ $304 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,569 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,200.45 · official $5,200.45 (match) · 13 history records