Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56d1…bfd4
crypto · 9 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$4 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 5 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% $0
other 14% $0
tech 7% −$1
weather 7% −$2
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.2% +16.0% 67% 67% -11.3%
≤30d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -19.3%
≤90d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -19.3%
all 4 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -19.3%
10% -21.3% 50% -27.0%
15% -28.9% 25% -34.0%
20% -35.9% 25% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.79 · official $5.79 (match) · 11 history records