Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d1…1baa crypto 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-9%) realized −$201 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%48W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$81
crypto 39% −$244
other 17% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.0% -18.5% 39% 39% +1.1%
≤30d 84 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 29% -28.3%
≤90d 139 -31.1% -37.6% 35% 34% -21.2%
all 139 -31.1% -37.6% 35% 34% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 34% -21.2%
10% -43.6% 29% -28.7%
15% -49.1% 24% -35.6%
20% -54.0% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses48 / 91
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)139 / 149
History coverage40d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 60¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 41¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$28 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$19 +53%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$6 -28%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $36 +$15 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $56 +$10 +17%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$16 -45%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $46 −$10 -22%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $31 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $83 +$11 +14%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$35 +172%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $29 −$4 -12%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 +$39 +84%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +83%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 +$9 +45%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$28 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $40 −$39 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $37 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $9 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 25 $17 −$12 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 25 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 25 $26 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 2h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $13 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $9 2h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 29¢ $4 2h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $11 2h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 40¢ $15 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $21 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.40 · official $144.40 (match) · 406 history records