Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x56d2…158f other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$22
sports 21% +$7
politics 20% −$4
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +18.1% +6.9% 100% 100% +6.9%
≤90d 10 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 50% -17.8%
all 102 +9.2% -1.2% 61% 25% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 25% -9.3%
10% -10.7% 19% -17.9%
15% -19.3% 13% -25.9%
20% -27.2% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage547d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 10 $2 +$3 +155%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 21 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Apr 01 $17 +$3 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 30 $12 +$5 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 24 $14 −$1 -10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 22 $2 +$3 +138%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 04 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 02 $27 +$2 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $3 +$7 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $11 +$3 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $3 +$1 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 04 $17 +$3 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 01 $14 +$3 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jan 31 $16 +$1 +3%
Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 28 $3 −$3 -81%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 27 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jan 25 $8 +$2 +29%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $48 −$5 -11%
Will LNG Esports win Demacia Cup 2025? Jan 03 $37 +$1 +2%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 26 $47 +$1 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 15 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $40 +$1 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $36 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 01 $5 +$25 +488%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 27 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 38¢ $2 50d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 93¢ $19 65d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 76d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 79d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 81d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $4 82d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $19 82d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes $1 85d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier BUY JD Gaming 86¢ $17 87d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 70¢ $12 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 71¢ $12 93d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 79¢ $14 94d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $10 95d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March BUY Yes 11¢ $1 97d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL Yes $1 100d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY Yes $1 100d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 103d
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 103d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 92¢ $10 105d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 106d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 107d
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 112d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to BUY No 89¢ $14 114d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to BUY No 94¢ $27 117d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $15 120d
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? BUY No 58¢ $7 120d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 97¢ $12 131d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 85¢ $10 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.84 (match) · 199 history records