Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d3…4a6e crypto 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$60 (+10%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day123.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$33
other 34% +$83
sports 13% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.3% -17.9% 57% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 14 -9.3% -17.9% 57% 50% -4.6%
≤90d 14 -9.3% -17.9% 57% 50% -4.6%
all 14 -9.3% -17.9% 57% 50% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 50% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 50% -13.7%
15% -32.9% 36% -22.1%
20% -39.5% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$29 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day123.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $216 +$83 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$55 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $59 +$25 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$24 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$9 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $21 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $83 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $118 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $65 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records