Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d7…67d4 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+7%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$173
crypto 38% −$3
sports 19% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -3.6% -12.7% 48% 45% +0.2%
≤30d 33 -3.6% -12.7% 48% 45% +0.2%
≤90d 33 -3.6% -12.7% 48% 45% +0.2%
all 33 -3.6% -12.7% 48% 45% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 45% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 45% -9.4%
15% -28.7% 39% -18.1%
20% -35.7% 30% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$69 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$10 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$13 -80%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$7 +9%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $296 +$123 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$25 +165%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -14%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 50m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $51 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.56 · official $68.56 (match) · 82 history records