Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56d8…1cce sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,752 (-4%) realized −$6,182 · open −$570
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 54L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,830per market
Trades / day124.9pace
Fees−$949est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,002
7 days+$334
14 days+$584
30 days−$2,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$526
sports 28% −$1,809
crypto 10% −$1,261
tech 0% −$4
finance 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.0% -21.2% 33% 17% -8.6%
≤30d 97 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 26% -10.6%
≤90d 97 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 26% -10.6%
all 97 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 26% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 26% -10.6%
10% -19.6% 16% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 11% -27.0%
20% -34.5% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$872) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$210 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$6,182
Unrealized−$570
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$949
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,830
Trades / day124.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No $582 $13 −$569 (-98%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,808 −$39 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10,853 +$505 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,510 +$666 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18,756 −$1,261 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,676 +$168 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16,989 −$91 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23,176 +$1,044 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,203 −$70 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,501 +$81 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,674 −$216 -3%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $85 −$61 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $174 +$47 +27%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $207 −$4 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,764 −$92 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,002 +$38 +1%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $750 −$3 -0%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $826 +$158 +19%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $115 −$16 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $502 −$3 -0%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,755 −$83 -5%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $232 −$229 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $172 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $71 +$70 +99%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $649 +$74 +11%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $385 −$58 -15%
Harold Mayot vs. Semen Pankin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $46 +$2 +5%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $41 +$10 +24%
ITF Banja Luka: Adela Polakovicova vs Suana Tucakovic Jun 02 $76 +$117 +155%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1,513 +$259 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,759 −$158 -9%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,890 −$3,021 -62%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9,011 −$109 -1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $149 +$14 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,001 +$160 +8%
ITF Kutaisi: Yanki Erel vs Daniil Ostapenkov May 30 $250 +$97 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $2,546 +$565 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $5 $0 +10%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5 May 28 $100 +$89 +89%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $2,234 −$1,280 -57%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Golubev/Nedovyesov May 27 $4,228 +$1,678 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1,261 −$495 -39%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $872 +$324 +37%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $1,925 −$400 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 10¢ $5 7m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 8m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $1,407 8m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $137 8m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,005 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $212 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $8 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $133 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $26 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $22 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $93 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $181 10m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $21 10m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $18 10m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 10m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $284 10m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $20 19m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $20 19m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $20 19m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $0 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $5 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $30 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $3 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $6 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $16 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 21m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 21m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $0 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.53 · official $13.53 (match) · 3196 history records