Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x56da…c4f8 crypto 11 markets active 19d ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-10%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% $0
crypto 45% −$1
economics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 11 -15.4% -23.5% 64% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 45% -16.4%
10% -30.8% 27% -24.4%
15% -37.5% 27% -31.7%
20% -43.6% 18% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage224d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 02 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2AM ET Nov 01 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 01 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Nov 01 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records