Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56e1…3a24 other 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$33
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$34
sports 23% −$19
politics 9% −$7
economics 7% −$14
crypto 7% −$8
culture 7% −$7
world 4% −$7
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage134d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $716 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $168 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $125 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $649 −$4 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $135 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $238 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $778 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $474 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $304 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $848 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 3h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 7h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 8h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 10h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 11h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 14h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 16h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 18h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $8 25h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 41h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 42h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $21 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1377 history records