Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56e2…4a79 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,660 (-1%) realized −$919 · open −$741
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%152W / 63L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,028per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,072
7 days−$1,672
14 days+$453
30 days+$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$4,495
other 11% +$1,764
tech 2% +$468
crypto 2% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.3% -22.5% 60% 44% -23.7%
≤30d 91 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 26% -8.8%
≤90d 215 +6.4% -3.7% 71% 16% -10.2%
all 215 +6.4% -3.7% 71% 16% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 16% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 13% -18.8%
15% -21.3% 9% -26.6%
20% -29.1% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,691) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$125 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$919
Unrealized−$741
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses152 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 219
History coverage77d
Avg bet$1,028
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 42¢ 100¢ $124 $296 +$171 (+138%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $31 $40 +$9 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 54¢ 64¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ $566 $1 −$566 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Under 37¢ $349 $0 −$348 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,098 −$2,081 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $420 +$67 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $159 −$157 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $53 +$18 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,825 +$141 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $238 +$106 +45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $264 +$36 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $435 +$7 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $180 +$20 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $51 +$91 +177%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $197 −$126 -64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $997 +$151 +15%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $83 −$53 -64%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 11 $396 −$30 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 09 $2,690 +$230 +8%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $202 +$82 +40%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Herbert (+1.5) Jun 08 $198 +$2 +1%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $832 −$17 -2%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $466 +$29 +6%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $147 −$146 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $32 +$61 +191%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $297 +$31 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 05 $44 +$13 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $310 +$31 +10%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $104 +$83 +79%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 04 $1,599 +$675 +42%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 04 $2,133 +$570 +27%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $2,215 +$916 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 02 $1,005 −$46 -5%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Jun 02 $9 +$23 +241%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 01 $450 −$32 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $143 −$3 -2%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 01 $42 −$1 -2%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $661 −$189 -29%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 31 $280 −$71 -25%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $242 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 44m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $146 55m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $109 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $18 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $31 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $39 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $47 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $88 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $287 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $60 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $8 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $181 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $43 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $334 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $170 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $65 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $472 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $78 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $57 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $188 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.61 · official $348.61 (match) · 1606 history records