Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
56 0x56e3…9d50 sports 13 markets active 6d ago coverage 151d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$273 (-12%) realized −$289 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$258
other 16% −$43
crypto 5% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.9% +9.4% 50% 50% -12.0%
≤30d 6 +70.6% +54.4% 50% 50% +3.7%
≤90d 6 +70.6% +54.4% 50% 50% +3.7%
all 9 +13.7% +2.9% 33% 33% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 33% -24.9%
10% -6.9% 33% -32.1%
15% -15.9% 33% -38.6%
20% -24.2% 33% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$168 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage151d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $254 +$278 +109%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $253 +$196 +78%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $254 −$9 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $508 −$500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$226 +440%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline Jan 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Jan 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $440 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 49¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 49¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 49¢ $69 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 49¢ $46 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 49¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $254 6d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $253 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $508 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $254 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 12¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 34¢ $278 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $51 11d
Chargers vs. Patriots BUY Chargers 22¢ $250 156d
Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline BUY Chargers 39¢ $99 156d
Chargers vs. Patriots BUY Chargers 39¢ $100 156d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.70 · official $415.70 (match) · 29 history records