Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x56e3…81cc other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,699 (+4%) realized +$9,968 · open −$2,269
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%78W / 40L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,585per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$18,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days−$1,050
14 days−$1,050
30 days−$7,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 47% +$5,372
other 25% +$3,437
politics 21% −$751
world 4% −$1,002
culture 2% +$411
economics 0% −$407
sports 0% +$111
crypto 0% +$113
finance 0% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.3% -18.9% 67% 33% -32.5%
≤30d 13 -16.0% -24.0% 62% 38% -27.9%
≤90d 49 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 57% -5.6%
all 118 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 49% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 49% -4.8%
10% -18.4% 25% -13.9%
15% -26.3% 14% -22.3%
20% -33.5% 10% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,018) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$670 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$18,383
Realized+$9,968
Unrealized−$2,269
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses78 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)118 / 128
History coverage346d
Avg bet$1,585
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $5,654 $5,588 −$66 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $4,336 $5,086 +$750 (+17%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $1,407 $1,601 +$194 (+14%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $1,233 $1,278 +$45 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $1,024 $1,147 +$123 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $1,028 $1,066 +$37 (+4%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 76¢ 29¢ $2,554 $973 −$1,580 (-62%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $1,285 $860 −$425 (-33%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 79¢ 31¢ $1,632 $642 −$989 (-61%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $500 $142 −$358 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $906 +$62 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 22 $2,355 −$1,241 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $348 +$111 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $961 +$59 +6%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $6,479 +$1,329 +20%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $7,221 +$1,801 +25%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $5,413 −$2,776 -51%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $980 +$19 +2%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $1,315 +$371 +28%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $5,086 −$4,904 -96%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $300 −$250 -83%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $3,267 −$1,940 -59%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $700 +$104 +15%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,250 +$150 +12%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $251 +$103 +41%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,755 +$191 +11%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,308 +$371 +28%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6,144 +$814 +13%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $782 −$550 -70%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $689 −$682 -99%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $376 −$371 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 16 $797 +$152 +19%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $321 −$315 -98%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $2,018 +$224 +11%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $1,372 +$239 +17%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $882 +$251 +28%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $441 −$429 -97%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1,715 −$1,699 -99%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $1,199 +$591 +49%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $865 +$976 +113%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $9,992 +$856 +9%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $7,046 +$8,420 +120%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $2,657 −$1,458 -55%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (S Apr 17 $662 +$77 +12%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1,311 +$277 +21%
Claude 4.7 released by April 17? Apr 16 $471 +$119 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $2,070 +$894 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 15 $10,465 +$2,157 +21%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $6,300 −$5,171 -82%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $1,869 +$136 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4,800 +$1,500 +31%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $5,785 +$320 +6%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,040 −$612 -59%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3,212 +$274 +8%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $193 +$227 +117%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $2,348 +$1,086 +46%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $4,512 +$1,483 +33%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $3,956 +$2,093 +53%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 26 $720 −$720 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $843 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,035 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $3,795 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $453 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $453 21h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $154 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $16 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $65 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $38 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $18 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 79¢ $1,645 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $0 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $30 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 77¢ $11 2d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 76¢ $2,206 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,892 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,236 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $5 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $286 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $815 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,383.25 · official $18,383.25 (match) · 1129 history records