Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56e7…7c0b sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$247 (-2%) realized −$729 · open +$482
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$762per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$171
14 days−$171
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$482
sports 9% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.1% -27.7% 67% 42% -23.5%
≤30d 12 -20.1% -27.7% 67% 42% -23.5%
≤90d 12 -20.1% -27.7% 67% 42% -23.5%
all 12 -20.1% -27.7% 67% 42% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 42% -23.5%
10% -34.6% 17% -30.8%
15% -41.0% 8% -37.5%
20% -46.7% 0% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$68 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$4,247
Realized−$729
Unrealized+$482
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$762
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 53¢ 57¢ $2,204 $2,390 +$186 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $838 $847 +$9 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 50¢ 92¢ $360 $660 +$301 (+84%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $364 $350 −$14 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $78 +$21 +27%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $96 +$4 +4%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $187 +$13 +7%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $39 +$6 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $58 +$22 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $85 +$15 +17%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $266 +$17 +6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $41 −$32 -78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $952 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $38 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $188 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $170 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $364 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $225 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $37 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $261 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $128 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $712 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $3 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $32 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $32 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $6 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $75 22h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 82¢ $16 42h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 71¢ $36 44h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 78¢ $78 44h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 96¢ $96 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 87¢ $87 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,247.38 · official $4,247.38 (match) · 61 history records