Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56eb…eea2 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-11%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$21
other 26% −$2
weather 19% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 58 -3.1% -12.3% 78% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 58 -3.1% -12.3% 78% 0% -12.6%
all 102 -13.1% -21.3% 61% 17% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 17% -20.1%
10% -28.9% 13% -27.7%
15% -35.7% 10% -34.7%
20% -42.0% 9% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records